Poll: Cotton takes lead over Shoffner - Talk Business & Politics
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Arkansas Election 2026
Poll: Cotton takes lead over Shoffner
Talk Politics
by Talk Business & Politics staff
2 hours ago | 319 views
A new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll released Thursday, October 15, 2026, reveals incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Tom Cotton leading his Democratic challenger, Hallie Shoffner, by nine points among likely voters.
The poll, conducted October 8-13, 2026, surveyed 709 individuals and has a margin of error of +/-5%. It asked:
"If the election for U.S. Senate was being held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?"
Results indicate:
- 50% – Sen. Tom Cotton – R
- 41% – Hallie Shoffner – D
- 4.5% – Jeff Wadlin – L
- 4.5% – Undecided
This marks a six-point increase in Cotton's support and a six-point decrease for Shoffner since a similar poll in mid-August. In that earlier poll, Shoffner led Cotton 47.4%-44%. Libertarian Jeff Wadlin had 3% in August and 5.6% undecided.
"Since our poll results were released in August, we've seen a barrage of millions in ads spent against Shoffner and for Cotton," noted Roby Brock, Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief. "Clearly, this has made an impact. However, with just under three weeks to go, this race is far from over. It has been competitive, and there's still time for more shifts."
Analysis
Roby Brock seeks bipartisan input in poll construction and analysis. Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group (working with Republican candidates), provided this interpretation:
"Senator Tom Cotton is in a solid position to win re-election on November 3rd. He leads in every demographic category and across all regions of the state. His campaign has effectively countered the millions spent against him by focusing on his record and conservative principles."